Monday, April 7, 2008

The China Wait

Many of you are probably asking, "Why is it going to be 3-4 more years?" is our estimation and reasoning behind it.  

At the time we started our adoption journey in 2006, the wait from LID (Log-In Date) to Referral (when you get her picture) was 6-12 months.  Since then, we have seen the wait grow to 27 months, where it is currently.  The 27 month timeframe is the CURRENT wait time, but I think it is an unfair representation of how long we will have to wait.  The folks who are receiving referrals NOW have waited 27 months.  Our agency fully expects the wait to grow to over 4 years at some point.  The last batch of referrals that our agency received was for the January 6, 2006 LID.  The reason why we say it will be 3-4 more years is for several reasons, and I hope I don't overwhelm you with numbers here.  (My job deals with analyzing data, and sometimes I over do it.)  :)
1.  In 2007, China only referred approximately 6 months worth of LID's.  If they were on pace for that production in 2008, it would be 2 years before we got our referral b/c our LID was November of 2006.  That is the best case scenario in my opinion.
2.  We highly doubt that they will get through 6 months in 2008 b/c we have only seen a couple of batches of referrals so far in 2008, and is was only a couple of days worth at a time...not like a full month at a time like they used to do.  We are in April now, and current pace tells me that it would be almost 3 years before we get ours.
3.  The Olympics are in Beijing this summer.  This supposedly won't affect anything, but I think it will slow things down even more.

The slow-down really began mid-year 2007.  I had high hopes that it was only for a couple of months and that it would get better, but unfortunately, it has gotten much worse than we expected.  There are many rumors out in the adoption community as to why the slow-down is happening:  China is promoting domestic adoption; they have more families wanting children than they have children, the Summer Olympics in Beijing, bad press, etc.  No one really knows the answer, except for China.  There are approximately 30,000 families waiting for children right now as I type and more and more sign up every day.  We just have to keep the faith that one day God will unite us with the little girl that has been chosen for us.  

During the winter, there was a huge ice storm and heavy wintry weather in southern China.  Some of the orphanages were without heat, and donations were collected to help the children eat and stay warm.  The most frustrating thing for us was to know that there are children who are waiting for homes and loving families who are waiting to adopt them.  And, we can do nothing about it....but wait.